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Friday, September 25, 2009

A-League Round 8 (25/9 to 27/9)

Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory
Gold Coast United v Melbourne Victory
Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast
Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC
North Queensland v Adelaide United


Friday, September 25
Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory

Preview: A buoyant Perth Glory will travel to Newcastle with an air of confidence after downing Brisbane Roar 2-4 (in Round 7) and in turn, breaking a sequence of 6 straight away losses. On the other hand, Newcastle fought bravely at Sydney last Sunday but fell just short with a 2-1 defeat. If Matt Thompson had not missed a penalty when the scores were deadlocked at 0-0, we may very well have had a different outcome. For this match, Newcastle will still be without their young guns who are on international duty but manager, Branco Culina, will bolster his forward line with Dutchman, Donny de Groot, returning from injury. The visitors, Perth Glory, will have to make do without the inspirational Jamie Harnwell for 8 weeks after picking up a knee injury but in better news, preferred keeper Velaphi returns while Jukic and Amarel are also included.

Verdict: Newcastle can consider themselves a bit unlucky last week after not picking up atleast a point. In complete contrast, Perth made the most of a host of calamitous mistakes by Brisbane keeper, Liam Reddy, to earn the three points. Otherwise, Brisbane played the better football but it was not to be their day. Newcastle have shown that they can be a very dangerous team on their day, defeating run-away leaders Gold Coast in Round 4 and winning two of their three fixtures at Energy Australia stadium. After suffering two losses in row, Newcastle will be highly motivated (more so than Perth) and it is likely that they will condemn the visitors to an away loss, something that they have become very well accustomed to in the past.

Pick: Newcastle DNB @1.96 (ibcbet, 8 units)
Newcastle 0 - 1 Perth

Saturday, September 26
Gold Coast United v Melbourne Victory

Preview: An intriguing contest will take centre stage at Skilled Stadium today when title favourites, Gold Coast United, take on defending champions in Melbourne Victory. Gold Coast will need to do alot better than last week when they were convincingly beaten 3-0 at Central Coast. Melbourne achieved their most impressive result so far this season with a 2-0 win in Adelaide. Injuries and suspensions cast a big clowd over this contest, with key figures missing from both teams. Gold Coast's top marksman and the A-League's golden boot leader, Shane Smeltz, is suspended after seen red in Round 7 while in-form midfielder, Zenon Caravella, is forced to miss out with a hip injury. In better news, striker Joel Porter returns after recovering from a calf injury in addition to Robson, who has recovered sufficiently from a knee complaint. Melbourne's goal hero from last week, Nick Ward, is unavailable with a groin strain while Pondeljak and Kruse will have fitness tests.

Verdict: Gold Coast's results and performances have visibly taken a turn for the worse in the past month, only managing a solitary win in their past four encounters. The dip in form of Jason Culina, defensive lapses, complacency, and injuries to key men has probably contributed to this. Gold Coast really missed the creative spark of Caravella against Central Coast and with his absence together with that of Smeltz's scoring ability, the home team may just struggle for goals. Melbourne are beginning to show some consistency with one loss in their last six encounters but are playing far from their best football at the moment. The energetic Nick Ward will be a big loss for the visitors, and it will mean that most of the creative burden will fall on the shoulders of Costa Rican, Carlos Hernandez. In contrast to their more recent games, I believe Gold Coast will be extremely motivated for this match and have an opportunity to make a statement against last year's champions. Gold Coast players, Thwaite and Pantelidis, will face their former club for the first time so I expect a derby-like tension between the teams with possibly alot of stoppage in play.

Picks: Under 2.5 goals @1.83 (ibcbet, 5 units)
Gold Coast 2 - 3 Melbourne Victory

Sunday, 27 September
Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC

Preview: Sydney FC will have the chance to move to the top of the table when they face an injury-struck Brisbane Roar. Brisbane have no less than seven players unavailable due to international commitments and injuries. Despite this lengthy list, they were unfortunate last week to lose 4-2 against Perth Glory, in a game where goalkeeper Liam Reddy would like to forget. In contrast, Sydney FC were very fortunate to get the three points in a 2-1 win over Newcastle United. Brisbane atleast retain the services of the experienced Danny Tiatto and young defender Matt Mundy, while Sydney's Czech contingent in Kisel and Karol return to bolster their ranks. Ex-Socceroos striker, John Aloisi, is a 50/50 proposition for the visitors.

Verdict: Brisbane's deficiencies in defence were there for all to see last week as Perth Glory made the most of the gifts that were presented to them. Sydney do have the ammunition to take advantage of similar opportunities with Alex Brosque and Mark Bridge leading the line for the visitors. The problem for Brisbane is the lack of defensive cover in midfield with the like of McKay and Murdocca missing from the squad. Going forward though the home team are a real force, managing to score in each game of the A-League season to date. Sydney do have the second best defensive record in the league but it is likely that the home team will dictate the flow of the game and an open game should ensue.

Picks:
Over 2.25 goals @1.93 (sbobet, 7 units)
Brisbane 1 - 0 Sydney FC
Brisbane Roar DNB @1.82 (sbobet, 5 units)
Brisbane 1 - 0 Sydney FC

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