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Friday, August 27, 2010

A-League Round 4 (27-29/08)

Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix
Gold Coast United v Melbourne Victory
Sydney FC v Central Coast
North Queensland v Adelaide United
Melbourne Heart v Perth Glory


Friday, August 27

Birsbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix

Verdict: A good match is in prospect here as undefeated Brisbane and Wellington meet at Suncorp Stadium. Just as they did in Week 1, in the scoreless draw at Gold Coast United (0-0), Brisbane monopolized possession and created plentiful opportunities against Sydney FC. They were rewarded for their efforts in the second half with a neat finish by captain Matt McKay to win 1-0. Wellington stretched their unbeaten run at Westpac Stadium to 21 games with a 2-0 win over a poor Central Coast Mariners. It was a very poor game by both sides but Wellington had that little bit more going forward and struck on either side of half-time with Bertos and Ifill getting on the scoresheet.

Brisbane's short, quick passing, team game has been a joy to watch this season. It will be interesting to see how they match up against a Wellington side who incorporate a more direct style of play, and rely on the individual brilliance of Ifill, Greenacre, and Bertos to get their goals. On the evidence of these first few rounds, Brisbane is the more complete team whereas Wellington has some obvious flaws. The Phoenix central midfield pairing of Brown and Lia have been overpowered so far this season whereas the backline has not looked very secure. Add to the fact that Wellington have won only 5 of 24 games on their travels in the last two seasons and you get the sense that they are up against it. I expect Brisbane to rule possession and get at the visitors back 4 with relative ease. Paartalu has been a revelation for Brisbane in the defensive midfield role and I am confident that he can blunt Wellington's dangerous counter-attacks.

Pick: Brisbane Roar -0.25AH @2.02 (188bet, 10 units)
Brisbane 1 - 0 Wellington


Sunday, August 29

Gold Coast United v Melbourne Victory

Verdict: Gold Coast United performed heroics at Wellington last weekend, storming back from a 2 goal deficit to eventually draw 3-3. It was a well deserved point for the Coasters but it came at a hefty price with star strikers, Shane Smeltz and Joel Porter, picking up knocks and are consequently ruled out of this fixture. Melbourne have been below par so far this season with striker Archie Thompson still months away in returning from a knee injury. They did though regain the services of fellow striker Robbie Kruse in the 2-2 draw against North Queensland. Despite Melbourne's goals coming from two Kevin Muscat penalties, Kruse did look threatening and will offer the visitors a target going forward.

Gold Coast United are set to give several youngsters the opportunity to impress with the absence of their first choice strike force. I believe the home team will be severely depleted as a result and therefore give Melbourne Victory a good chance at picking up a much needed 3 points.

Pick: Melbourne Victory dnb @2.15 (pinnacle, 10 units)
Gold Coast United 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Heart v Perth Glory

Verdict: Bottom meets top as new A-League club, Melbourne Heart, will go in search of their first win against flawless Perth. Despite losing 3-2 in Adelaide, Melbourne put on their best performance of the season after two prior lifeless outings. Perth defeated Newcaslte Jets 1-0 with a controversial goal by big Serb Branko Jelic which was enough to seperate the sides. Perth had chances to further add to that score in the second half with good combination play between Fowler and Jelic but they were denied by good keeping and a touch of misfortune.

Melbourne have only 1pt to show for their efforts so far this season which is worrying, considering they haven't played any of the better teams yet. The good news is that experienced A-League players in Thompson and Heffernan are beginning to play to their capabilities. In Heart team news, experienced centre-back, Michael Beauchamp, misses out through injury while fellow centre-back and captain, Simon Colosimo, complained of hamstring soreness in Friday's training session but is expected to play. Perth will miss out on the services of regular centre-back, Jamie Harnwell, and forward Mile Sterjovski.
Heart is improving steadily but it is difficult to see them getting maximum points against a settled Perth side. Heart have so far looked very porous at the back so the exclusion of Beauchamp, and possibly Colosimo, will be quite damaging. As mentioned above, the Perth strike partnership of Fowler and Jelic was very good last week and I expect them to make the most of Melbourne's deficiencies. Perth were 2-0 victors against Melbourne Victory on this very ground just two weeks ago and a similar score line here is possible.

Pick: Perth -0.25AH @2.23 (188bet, 10 units)
Melbourne Heart 2 - 2 Perth

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