Melbourne Heart v Central CoastAdelaide United v Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets v Sydney FC
Perth Glory v Gold Coast United
North Queensland Fury v Brisbane Roar
Sydney FC v Wellington Phoenix
Gold Coast United v Central Coast
Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory
Friday, February 4
Melbourne Heart v Central Coast
Verdict: Big game for both teams, especially for Melbourne, as the home side need nothing but a win to keep their finals hopes alive. Central Coast can virtually cement a top 2 position with maximum points. Last weekend, Melbourne Heart had their 6 game undefeated streak broken, valiantly going down 2-1 at league leaders Brisbane Roar. In their respective match, Central Coast impressively dealt with third placed Adelaide United in the match of the round, winning 1-2 away from home.
The Heart has played some good football in recent weeks but they just haven't been able to convert draws into wins. Now, they will need to come out of their shell and play a more attacking style game, something that they don't general do at AAMI Park. Melbourne has been one of the poorest home sides this season (4-4-5), scoring a measly 12 goals in 13 games which is the lowest in the league. Central Coast is the hottest team at the moment, and look to be only getting better with Argentine midfielder, Patricio Perez, scoring 3 goals in his last four outings. The visitors also have a solid defence, conceding only 11 goals on their travels which is a league best. With Melbourne pushing for three points, I expect the visitors to hold firm at the back and exploit the spaces left behind which they are so adept at doing.
Pick: Central Coast -0.25ah @2.07 (sbobet, 10 units)
Melbourne Heart 1 - 1 Central Coast
Sunday, February 6
Newcastle Jets v Sydney FC
Verdict: Two points separates these sides, who both lie in the bottom half of the table, with Newcastle mathematically more advantageous to make the finals. The league table though can be deceiving at times and this is one of those occasions. On Wednesday, Newcastle lost 2-0 against an injury-plagued Melbourne Victory to stretch their losing streak to 4 games (lost 7 of last 9) with their only recent wins coming against bottom club North Queensland. In contrast, Sydney's serious charge towards an unlikely finals appearance gained more momentum with an 0-2 win at Perth Glory. The Sky Blues are now undefeated in their last five games, collecting an impressive 7pts on the road in the process.
The Jets are likely to get some bodies back to bolster their threadbare squad with Abbas, Patafta, Petrovski, and Regan poised for a return. Striker, Ryan Griffiths, serves the final game of his two-match suspension while midfielder Marcellio Fiorentini joins him on the sidelines following his sending off in the midweek fixture. Despite the news that star striker, Alex Brosque, was given permission to leave the club earlier this week, Sydney is a team full of confidence. Brosque has had no input in Sydney's recent good form so it's not unwise to think that his absence won't affect the team. In fact, this may inspire strikers on short term stays such as Makela and Cazarine to perform in order to gain an extended contract. Sydney know that they need to win their remaining three fixtures to have a chance at making the finals. With a fully fit squad and star midfielder, Nicky Carle, returning to peak form, I give them a good chance of winning this game and in turn keeping their finals hopes alive.
Pick: Sydney FC -0.25ah @2.13 (sbobet, 10 units)
Newcastle Jets 1-1 Sydney FC
Tuesday, February 8
North Queensland Fury v Brisbane Roar
Verdict: Champions elect, Brisbane Roar, take on bottom side North Queensland at the neutral venue of Skilled Park. Due to the recent cyclone in the North-Eastern part of Australia, this game was postponed from the Fury's regular home venue, Dairy Farmer's Stadium. Following Central Coast's inability to defeat Melbourne Heart on Friday, Brisbane are already A-League's 'minor' Premiers going into this game with an unassailable 8pt lead, and a streak of 23 games undefeated. In contrast, North Queensland has lost their last six on the bounce with a -19 GD (2-21) and the majority of the squad contracted to other teams for next season.
Brisbane manager, Ange Postecoglou, has vowed to field a full-strength team as he looks for his team to go into the finals series in top form. He will make two enforced changes to the side with striker, Solarzano, and midfielder Murdocca both carrying knocks. The replacements though are impressive with captain, Matt McKay, returning from his excellent showing in the Asian Cup while flying Brazilian forward, Henrique, and impressive youngster, James Meyer, will fight for a spot up front with Barbarouses. North Queensland lose exciting midfielder, Cernak, through injury but it probably won't detract too much from a side who has no motivation, a club that seemingly has no future as of next season. I expect the return of McKay to give the Roar some real intensity. I'm also looking for Barbarouses to score at least one as he goes in search of his first goal since the turn of the year.
Pick: Brisbane -1.5ah @1.99 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Brisbane 2 - 1 North Queensland
Wednesday, February 9
Gold Coast United v Central Coast Mariners
Verdict: Gold Coast United will aim for an unlikely top 2 finish as they try to jump Central Coast and Adelaide United in the standings. Gold Coast's 1-2 win at Perth, and Central Coast's 1-1 draw at Melbourne Heart means that there is only 5pts separating both sides with two games to play.
Gold Coast must be feeling a little leg weary at the moment as they embark on their fourth outing in just 10 days. Tinker man, Gold Coast manager Miron Blieberg, will surely shuffle his pack as he doesn't want to add to an already growing injury list that includes top scorer, Bruce Djite. Central Coast go into this match with out their own top scorer, Matt Simon, who injured his knee in the rain deluged contest in Melbourne. The visitors though only need a draw to preserve 2nd spot and all the play-off luxuries that come with it. Taking into account that Skilled Park is the worst surface in the league (and hosts Brisbane Roar v Nth Queensland the day before), Gold Coast's recent busy schedule, striker absence, and Central Coast's great defensive record (conceded league low 12 goals in 14 away games), there is a good chance we will see a low scoring affair here.
Pick: Under 2.25 goals @2.0 (ibcbet, 5 units)
Gold Coast United 1 - 3 Central Coast Mariners
Thursday, February 10
Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory
Verdict: 8th placed Newcastle Jets are the only team with a mathematical chance of catching 6th placed Wellington Phoenix. The 1-1 draw against Sydney FC on Sunday halted a four game losing streak but left the Jets with a mountain to climb in order to qualify for the play-offs. The home side must win their remaining two games and hope that North Queensland cause an upset in Wellington. Perth has been out of the finals race for a while now as the club lost their fourth game on the bounce in a 1-2 reverse to Gold Coast United. The Glory are a club in transition with lots of players expected to be released in order to make way for a younger, more mobile squad.
Despite only acquiring a single point from their last 3 games, Newcastle has been competitive . There has also been a good vibe around the club this week with the news that young striker Marko Jesic, and the much coveted Nikolay Topor-Stanley, have put pen to paper on new long-term contracts. In further good news, striker Ryan Griffiths returns from his two-match suspension to spearhead the Newcastle attack. Perth is a side going through the motions at the moment. I expect Glory manager, Ian Ferguson, to select a youthful side for this encounter as he looks towards next season.
Pick: Newcastle Jets -0.75ah @1.89 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Newcastle Jets 4 - 0 Perth Glory
Friday, February 11
Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory
Verdict: In what could possibly be a pre-finals rehearsal, these arch rivals go head to head once again with Adelaide Utd lying in 3rd and Melbourne Victory in 5th. Both sides are certain of featuring in the finals but Melbourne does have a chance at gaining 4th place, and the advantage of a home final that comes with it, if they can capture three points. The busy schedule seems to have caught up with Adelaide in recent weeks as they have gone on a 3 game winless run. Melbourne on the other hand has kept three consecutive clean sheets and are undefeated in their last 5 outings.
Adelaide United limp into this encounter with flying wing-back Cassio out with a thigh strain, new recruit Osama Malik out with a hamstring strain, and star striker Sergio Van Dijk a slight doubt with a corked thigh. In contrast, Melbourne are strengthened with the return of all time A-League top goalscorer, Archie Thompson, Costa Rican midfielder, Carlos Hernandez, and right full-back Surat Sukha. Adelaide's absentees means that manager, Rini Coolen, will need to make some major reshuffling with his backline as defensive midfielder and new recruit, Usucar, drops to left back while Croatian, Dario Bodrusic, may slot at centre-back in just his second A-League game. This is bad news for the home side as Melbourne has potentially the most potent strike pairing in Allsopp, Kruse, and Thompson. Melbourne manager, Ernie Merrick, has a more settled line-up and will send out an unchanged team from last week despite the temptation of including his returning stars. Motivation, form, and team personnel all points to an away win for the visitors.
Pick: Melbourne Victory +0.25ah @2.0 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Adelaide United 2 - 1 Melbourne Victory
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