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Friday, December 3, 2010

A-League Round 17 (03-08/12)

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar
Central Coast v Sydney FC
North Queensland v Newcastle Jets
Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United
Gold Coast United v Melbourne Heart
Melbourne Heart v Newcastle Jets


Friday, December 3

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Verdict: Brisbane Roar set a new A-League record last weekend following the 1-5 away defeat of Central Coast Mariners, making it 14 consecutive games without defeat. Melbourne Victory are next in line to face the dominant league leaders, who incidentally are the only team to defeat the Roar back in Round 6, 3-0. Melbourne are currently on a winless streak of 4 games, following the 2-2 draw at Wellington on the weekend.

Brisbane is widely regarded as one of the best (if not the best) footballing teams to ever play in the A-League, such has been their dominance. Melbourne has had a season to forget so far but with long term absentees Archie Thompson, Matthew Kemp (returns today), and possibly the signing of striker Danny Allsopp in January, they may yet have a say come play-offs time. For this encounter, Melbourne has a key absentee in centre-back Adrian Leijer who serves a one match suspension. Brisbane miss midfielder Massimo Murdocca which is no real worry as Mitch Nichols is a more than competent replacement. In this form, it will be crazy to go against Brisbane.

Pick: Brisbane Roar -0.25ah @2.06 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Melbourne Victory 3 - 3 Brisbane Roar


Saturday, December 4

Central Coast Mariners v Sydney FC

Verdict: Central Coast will be eager to bounce back following their worst defeat for the season, a 1-5 mauling at the hands of trailblazing Brisbane Roar. Currently on a 4 game winless streak, the Mariners will atleast have a six day break to rest sore limbs (and egos) following a hectic period that has seen them play five games in the space of a fortnight. Last season's champions, Sydney FC, are slowly creeping up the ladder following a poor start to the season. Wednesday night's 3-1 over Wellington Phoenix saw the Sky Blues move to eighth place and 8pts arrears of Central Coast.

Central Coast has the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways as Sydney will definitely feel the effects of playing 3 days ago. In addition, Sydney has a poor away record of just one win in 7 games on their travels. Dispite the dissapoinment of losing striker Daniel McBreen through suspension, Central Coast has some important inclusions in midfielder Patricio Perez, and defender Pedj Bojic. Sydney FC are likely to retain the services of Brazilian frontman, Bruno Cazarine, while creative midfielder Nicky Carle is still weeks away with a back injury. I fancy the home side to show some bounce-back ability here following a tough run of games.

Pick: Central Coast -0.25ah @2.02 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Central Coast 4 - 0 Sydney FC

North Queensland v Newcastle Jets

Verdict: Both sides are on a good run of form at the moment with North Queensland unbeaten in their last 3, and Newcastle in their last 4. Despite an upturn in form, North Queensland still find themselves at the bottom of the table, a point behind Newcastle who has played a game less. On Wednesday, North Queensland notched up their first away win for the season with a 1-2 win over a depleted Gold Coast United. Newcastle United's last league outing was a creditable 1-1 draw with Central Coast. This game was followed by an exhibition game last Saturday, a 2-1 win over LA Galaxy.

Hot and humid conditions are expected in Townsville this evening so fitness and conditioning will play its part. North Queensland are playing their third game in 6 days so the home side will 'hit the wall' at some point. Newcastle retain the services of Francis Jeffers and captain Ljubo Milicevic, two key players. Newcastle are yet to win on their travels but I think they won't get a better opportunity than today.

Pick: Newcastle Jets +0.25ah @1.90 (sbobet, 10 units)
North Queensland 0 - 2 Newcastle Jets


Sunday, December 5

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Verdict: Second placed Adelaide United will look to continue their fine record against the Phoenix which reads one defeat in ten encounters. The Reds will certainly fancy their chances following two impressive wins against top-6 sides, Melbourne Heart (0-2) and Gold Coast United (2-1) in their most recent outings. After making the play-offs for the first time in the club's history last season, Wellington's performances have not been up to standard this term. Their woes continued with a 3-1 loss at Sydney midweek, condemning the Kiwi side to their 9th defeat for the season.

Following a run of 3 losses in 4 games in early November, Adelaide United seem to have recaptured the form that saw them go on a early season run of 11 games undefeated. Flores, Reid, Dodd, and Cassio have been the main catalysts for Adelaide's recent upturn in fortunes, with the latter signing on for another 2 years this week. Wellington has shown some signs of life in recent weeks with the otherwise subdued, Paul Iffil, scoring 3 goals in his last three games. Wellington lost their proud undefeated home record in emphatic fashion in early October, losing 1-4 to Brisbane followed by another loss to Central Coast, 0-3. Adelaide United are in a similar calibre to the aforementioned teams so I give them a good chance to take maximum points here, not to mention the luxury of having a further 5 days to prepare for this game compared to the home side.

Pick: Adelaide United -0.25ah @2.22 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Wellington Phoenix 2 - 1 Adelaide United


Wednesday, December 8

Melbourne Heart v Newcastle Jets

Verdict: Both sides go into this midweek encounter with contrasting form as Melbourne are winless in five, and Newcastle undefeated in five. As has been indicative of their fortunes over the last month, Melbourne Heart lost 3-0 at Gold Coast United despite dominating possession and creating some good opportunities. Newcastle Jets on the other hand showed efficiency in front of goal, without playing quality football, which was enough to see off bottom club North Queensland Fury 0-2.

Just 3 days before the second edition of the Melbourne derby against Melbourne Victory, the Heart will be keen to get back on track. With Newcastle collecting only their first away win for the season on Saturday (5pts from 21), Melbourne will feel this is a great opportunity to collect maximum points for the first time since early November. Heart midfielder, Rutger Worm, impressed on his return from injury and he along with Matt Thompson will be the main focal points for the home side going forward. Newcastle stand-in keeper, Matthew Nash, was in sterling form to keep the Jets in the game against North Queensland on Saturday, and will need to be in top form again if the visitors are to get anything from this game. Melbourne were only outplayed once (in the 0-2 loss to Adelaide United) on their current winless streak so I don't think a lack of confidence will be a factor here.

Pick: Melbourne Heart -0.25ah @2.12 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Melbourne Heart 0 - 2 Newcastle Jets

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