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Friday, December 10, 2010

A-League Round 18 (10-15/12)

Adelaide United v North Queensland
Melbourne Heart v Melbourne Victory
Gold Coast United v Wellington Phoenix
Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory v Central Coast
North Queensland v Sydney FC
Newcastle Jets v Gold Coast United


Saturday, December 11

Melbourne Heart v Melbourne Victory


Verdict: The much anticipated 2nd edition of the Melbourne derby will take place with just a single point separating both sides. Melbourne Heart sit in 7th place and Victory in 8th with the latter having played two games less. Melbourne Heart won the first encounter between the sides back in October, 2-1, but are really struggling for goals at the moment. The 0-2 loss against a 10-man Newcastle Jets midweek was perhaps Heart's lowest of lows, stretching their current scoreless run to 5 matches. Melbourne Victory are not fairing much better results wise, but they are scoring goals while their recent performances are reason for optimism. The dramatic 3-3 draw with league leaders, Brisbane Roar, was their third consecutive draw against a form side.

In addition to a long injury list, Melbourne Heart has had to contend with a very busy schedule. In fact, they will be playing their 8th game in a monthly period compared to Victory's 5th. In brighter news, midfielder Wayne Srhoj returns from suspension while Aloisi and Skoko are likely to come back into the team. Two time A-League champions and last season's runner-up, Melbourne Victory, look like they are set to challenge again this season after an indifferent season so far. Recent performances have been very impressive and belie the fact that they are 21pts behind the league leaders. Victory captain, Kevin Muscat, is cleared to play after an altercation, at the conclusion of last Friday's match, was reviewed and not deemed serious enough to lead to a suspension. This means that Victory go into this game with almost their full compliment of players, with the exception of Brazilian striker Ricardinho. Both teams look like they are going in opposite directions, Heart down and Victory up.

Picks:
Melbourne Victory -0.25ah @2.02 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Melbourne Heart 1 - 3 Melbourne Victory
Over 2.5 goals @2.11 (12bet, 5 units)
Melbourne Heart 1 - 3 Melbourne Victory



Sunday, December 12

Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Verdict: Sydney's three match unbeaten run came to a grinding halt on Saturday when they were dismantled 4-0 by a ruthless Central Coast Mariners. That result left the Sky Blues languishing in 9th position and 4pts off the play-off spots. The night prior, Brisbane left it late against Melbourne Victory to stretch their record undefeated run to 15 games. Despite looking in total control at 2-0 up and half an hour to play, a spirited Victory fight back put Brisbane's A-League record in jeopardy. Matt McKay's late strike though ensured that Brisbane returned home with a 3-3 result and a share of the points.

Just 3 days before playing bottom side North Queensland Fury, Sydney FC will look to upset the runaway leaders. The home side has seen an upturn in results in the last month but that can probably be attributed to their opposition's deficiencies, and perhaps a little bit of fortune rather than quality performances. It's been all good news for Brisbane this week with the announcement that McKay, Nichols, and Murdocca have signed long term contracts with the club. There's a gulf in class between these two sides so I won't be surprised if Sydney manager, Vitezslav Lavicka, saves his 50/50 rated striker Alex Brosque for the more winnable game against the Fury on Wednesday. Fellow striker, Bruno Cazarine, is expected to play after a month out with a back injury but some rustiness is expected. Brisbane are at full strength except for long-term absentee, Henrique, so I fully expect the visitors to come away with maximum points and break their winless record at Sydney in the process.

Pick: Brisbane Roar -0.25ah @2.05 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Sydney FC 0 - 1 Brisbane Roar


Wednesday, December 15

Newcastle Jets v Gold Coast United

Verdict: Newcastle aim to extend their six match unbeaten streak, and further strengthen their stranglehold on a finals play-off berth when they tackle a depleted Gold Coast United outfit. Newcastle has a full week's rest going into this game following their amazing 0-2 win at Melbourne Heart, playing with a man less for 82 minutes after the sending off of Jobe Wheelhouse. Despite a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wellington on the weekend, Gold Coast United paid a hefty price with Brown and Rees collecting their 5th caution for the season, resulting in a one game suspension. In addition, captain Jason Culina as well as fellow midfielders in Robson and Caravella, are major fitness doubts going into this game.

The absentees for the visitors are very important, especially Culina and Caravella as they are Gold Coast's most creative players. Newcastle has only conceded 6 goals in their nine home games to date so Gold Coast will find it very tough to score without the aforementioned. Former Everton and Arsenal man, Francis Jeffers, scored and assisted a goal in Newcastle's most recent win, and I believe will be the home side's main threat going forward.

Pick: Newcastle Jets dnb @1.91 (ibcbet, 10 units)
Newcastle Jets 2 - 0 Gold Coast United

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